Uncertanity haunts Zimbabwe: What election could mean

Sibusiso Banda

@AwesomeSBU

After all the immense effort by South Africa and the Southern African Development Community of forming a unity government and bringing peace through democracy over the past five years, elections free from violence finally took place in Zimbabwe.

Robert Mugabe claimed 61% to 33% majority victory over MDC in what was perceived as heavily disputed July elections. Dispute there being few arrests, less intimidation, violence, and more freedom of speech, Morgan Tsvangirai has rejected the results announced by Zimbabwe Electoral Commission as a “huge farce” and alleged immense vote rigging, mainly through a voters roll which he says was grossly manipulated and most voters were turned away from the pools. He’s contesting the outcome.

While uncertainty still haunts about the county’s future in Zanu-PF’s super majority government and its relation with the rest of the world, the aftermath of the election could possibly have negative impact on the millions of Zimbabweans reeling with poverty and a bleak future in an already economically stricken county. Economists say the country has a more than 70% unemployment rate and out of a 13 million around one million people are formally employed. Many families are prone poverty as disposable income continues to dwindle and for others this means crossing borders to seek greener postures again.

Analysts have expressed concerns over how the election dispute possibly plunging locals into misery as economy is now on stagnation mode after recovering in 2009. Christopher Mugaga says political risk will be a major factor after Zanu-PF’s disputed super majority win as they are likely “remain intransigent to the demands of attracting foreign direct investment as so-called sanctions are still in place,”

One needs to remember that US wanted a peaceful succession to Mugabe through credible elections: so does SA who bore the brunt of thousands of Zimbabwean refugees who fled across the border from the 2008 violence. There is shared interests create an opportunity for both to forge a partnership with the country specially for SA as there’s still popular resentment and fear of xenophobic outbreaks if the situation remains the same. This will further tarnish SA’s reputation as "the rainbow nation”

The AU and SADC’s respective reputation is prone to more attacks after their quick of endorsement the Zimbabwe election. The 50 year old AU has been heavily criticised for its failure to stop regional conflicts and also its support for controversial leaders. Despite many irregularities being reported, they continued to declare the elections as “free” because of lack violence. Even president Zuma sent congratulations to Zanu-PF: What does this mean about SA and SADC’s choice of friends? It would not be the first times, remember in 2011 when they refused the Dalai Lama VISA but allowed Equatorial Guinea dictator president Teodoro Obiang Nguema?

As SADC and the AU seek to legitimise Mugabe's presidency by continuing to call for the lifting of the sanctions, looking ahead it’s likely the west likely to retain sanctions Mugabe as he’s likely to resign any time soon.